( The following scientific article - journal has been published
under the intention and reason for 'creative common benefits'. )
*************************************************************************
"It's highly a greatest honour for an audience for
me to bow, to serve my duties, and to be standing
in front of the photo of the Royals, on the right,
all Thai's forever beloved the late
His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej the Great
of the Kingdom of Thailand and
His Majesty King Abdullah bin Hussein
of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan"
*************************************************************************
thank you for the audience granted
for the most auspicious and honorable moment"
*************************************************************************
Summary for Executive regarding:
Weather Modification Project in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
by means of the transferred Royal Rainmaking Technology from
the Kingdom of Thailand
Overviews and comments:
After the pre-investigative study trip of two weeks in 2014 which was followed by another two weeks of preparation for demonstration that was commenced and carried out as actual experimental operation flights by the Royal Rainmaking Technology method in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan on 26, 27, 28 March 2016,
( for full details please click: http://jordan-rainmaking.blogspot.com for recorded journal ),
there have been some reflections and perspective which can be briefly
described as follows.
Firstly, we must realize that:
(The following paragraphs, only those that are directly relevant, are quoted PARTLY from WMO DOCUMENTS ON WEATHER MODIFICATION, Updated in the meeting of the Expert Team on Weather Modification Research at Abu Dhabi, 22-24 March 2010 in which we must strongly refer to as our concrete guidelines and references.)
1.2 It should be realised that the energy involved in weather systems is so large that it is impossible to create cloud systems that rain, alter wind patterns to bring water vapour into a region, or completely eliminate severe weather phenomena. Weather Modification technologies that claim to achieve such large scale or dramatic effects do not have a sound scientific basis and should be treated with suspicion.
https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/WMR_documents.final_27_April_1.FINAL.pdf
(For full study - article please copy and paste the above link to your web browser.)
1.4 Operational programmes in fog dispersion, rain and snow enhancement and hail suppression are taking place in many countries around the world. The primary aim of these projects is to obtain more water, reduce hail damage, eliminate fog, or other similar practical result in response to a recognized need. Accomplishment of the stated goals is often difficult to establish with sufficient confidence. Economic analyses show that rainfall enhancement and hail suppression operations, if successful, could have significant economic benefit, but uncertainties make investments in such efforts subject to considerable risks.
3. PRECIPITATION
3.1 There is considerable evidence that cloud microstructure can be modified by seeding with glaciogenic or hygroscopic materials under appropriate conditions. The criteria for those conditions vary widely with cloud type. Evidence for significant and beneficial changes in precipitation on the ground as a result of seeding is controversial and in many cases cannot be established with confidence.
3.2 Cloud seeding has been used on both cold clouds, in which glaciogenic seeding aims to induce ice-phase precipitation, and warm clouds, where hygroscopic seeding aims to promote coalescence of water droplets. There is statistical evidence, supported by some observations, of precipitation enhancement from glaciogenic seeding of orographic super-cooled liquid and mixed-phase clouds and of some clouds associated with frontal systems that contain super-cooled liquid water.
3.3 The use of glaciogenic agents such as silver iodide to seed super-cooled cumulus clouds has produced few results of general validity. Observed responses of clouds vary widely. There are competing explanations and the questions are not yet resolved.
7.3 It is recognized that most weather modification projects are motivated by well documented requirements, but they also have associated risks and the results may remain uncertain. Any new project should seek advice from experts regarding the benefits to be expected, the risks involved, the optimum techniques to be used, and the likely impacts. The advisors should be as detached as possible from the project, so their opinions can be viewed as being unbiased. Operational weather modification projects should be reviewed periodically (annually if possible) to assess whether the best practices are being followed.
3.4 Seeding of convective clouds with hygroscopic materials has been shown to be adaptable to different cloud types and has produced encouraging statistical results supported by some physical observations and numerical modelling studies but is not yet an established technology.
7.1 The scientific status of weather modification, while steadily improving, still reflects limitations in the detailed understanding of cloud microphysics and precipitation formation, as well as inadequacies in accurate precipitation measurement. Governments and scientific institutions are urged to substantially increase their efforts in basic physics and chemistry research related to weather modification and related programmes in weather modification. Further testing and evaluation of physical concepts and seeding strategies are critically important. The acceptance of weather modification can only be improved by increasing the numbers of well executed experiments and building the base of positive scientific results.
7.2 Governments and other agencies involved in weather modification activities should invest in relevant education and training.
1.8 The complexity and variability of clouds result in great difficulties in understanding and detecting the effects of attempts to modify them artificially. As knowledge of cloud physics, chemistry and statistics and their application to weather modification has increased, new assessment criteria have evolved for evaluating cloud-seeding experiments. The development of new equipment — such as aircraft platforms with microphysical and air-motion measuring systems, radar (including Doppler and polarization capability), satellites, microwave radiometers, wind profilers, automated rain-gauge networks, mesoscale observing networks have introduced a new dimension. Equally important are the advances in computer systems and new algorithms that permit large quantities of data to be processed and models with more detailed description of cloud processes to be run in relatively short time.
1.11 Comparison of precipitation observed during seeded periods with that during historical periods presents problems because of climatic and other changes from one period to another. This situation has been made even more difficult with the potential inadvertent effects air pollution, mega-cities and of agricultural practices on cloud and rain formation. Furthermore, there is mounting evidence that climate change may lead to changes in global precipitation amounts as well as to spatial redistribution of precipitation. Consequently, the use of any evaluation technique must take into account and mitigate the bias introduced by these non-random effects on precipitation.
1.12 Proper evaluation of a weather modification activity requires a randomization process in which only some of the events suitable for seeding are in fact seeded. The accepted process requires the specification of objective criteria for the start of an event, so that bias is not introduced by subjective selection of seeded and unseeded events. Through various statistical techniques (such as regression or double ratio), the impact of seeding is assessed by using the unseeded events to estimate the 'natural' conditions in seeded events. The natural variability of precipitation is so high in many regions that a statistically significant evaluation requires an experiment to extend over many years. The evaluation should involve two stages. The primary analysis is a single test that detects the impact of seeding. The primary analysis is generally a statistical test that provides an estimate of the precipitation increase along with estimates of the statistical significance of the increase and the confidence intervals in which the true impact lies. The primary analysis is supported by a range of secondary analyses aimed at ensuring that the seeding hypothesis was validated. In particular, the secondary analyses provide physical support for the primary analysis, by explaining the scientific basis of the statistical result. The secondary analyses are especially important if the primary analysis yields a null or even negative impact of seeding. The separation of the primary analysis from the secondary analyses is to avoid the statistical phenomenon of 'multiplicity'; that is, if one carries out a large number of statistical tests then by chance one is sure to eventually find a positive result.
Orographic Mixed-Phase Cloud Systems
3.2 In our present state of knowledge, it is considered that the glaciogenic seeding of mixed-phase clouds formed by air flowing over mountains offers good prospects for increasing precipitation in an economically-viable manner under suitable conditions. These types of clouds attracted great interest in their modification because of their potential in terms of water management, i.e. the possibility of storing water in reservoirs or in the snowpack at higher elevations. There is statistical evidence that under certain conditions precipitation from super-cooled orographic clouds can be increased with existing techniques.
Cumuliform Clouds
3.9 In many regions of the world, cumuliform clouds are the main precipitation producers. These clouds are characterized by strong vertical velocities with high condensation rates. They hold the largest condensed water contents of all cloud types and can yield the highest precipitation rates. Seeding experiments with cumuliform clouds have produced variable results, which are at least partly due to the high natural variability of convective clouds.
3.10 Because cumuliform clouds can occur in many different conditions, the resulting precipitation can develop through rain drop coalescence (warm cloud) or through ice (cold cloud) processes or in combination of these processes (mixed-phase clouds). Thus glaciogenic or hygroscopic techniques may be used to modify this type of cloud. Precipitation enhancement techniques by glaciogenic seeding are utilized to affect ice and mixed phase processes, while hygroscopic seeding techniques are used to affect warm and mixed phase processes. Evaluation of these techniques has utilized direct measurements with surface precipitation gauges as well as indirect radar-derived precipitation estimates. Rainfall patterns produced by cumuliform clouds have complex spatial and temporal characteristics that are difficult to resolve with rain gauge networks alone.
Seeding with large amount of weather modification substances:
3.12 In recent years, the seeding of warm and cold convective clouds with hygroscopic chemicals to augment rainfall by enhancing warm rain processes (condensation/collision-coalescence/break-up mechanisms) has received renewed attention through model simulations and field experiments. Two methods of enhancing the warm rain process have been investigated. First, seeding with small particles (artificial CCN with mean sizes about 0.5 to 1.0 micrometers in diameter) is used to accelerate precipitation initiation by stimulating the condensation-coalescence process by favourably modifying the initial droplet spectrum at cloud base. Second, seeding with larger hygroscopic particles (about 30 micrometers in diameter) is used to accelerate precipitation development by stimulating the collision-coalescence processes. A randomized experiment utilizing the latter technique indicated statistical evidence of increases in radar-estimated precipitation increases. However, the increases were not as indicated by the conceptual model, but seemed to occur at later times (one to four hours after seeding). The cause of this apparent effect is not known.
Seeding with hygroscopic flares is generally best only at certain types of cloud:
---------------------------------------------------------------
3.13 Recent randomized seeding experiments with flares that produce small (0.5 to 1.0 micrometers in diameter) hygroscopic particles in the updraught regions of continental, mixed-phase convective clouds have provided statistical evidence of increases in radar-estimated rainfall. The experiments were conducted in different parts of the world and the important aspect of the results was the replication of the statistical results in a different geographical region. In addition, limited physical measurements were obtained suggesting that the seeding produced a broader droplet spectrum near cloud base that enhances the formation of large drops earlier in the lifetime of the cloud. These measurements were supported by numerical modelling studies. Although the results are encouraging and intriguing, the reasons for the duration of the observed effects obtained with the hygroscopic particle seeding are not understood and some fundamental questions remain. Measurements of the key steps in the chain of physical events associated with hygroscopic particle seeding are needed to confirm the seeding conceptual models and the range of effectiveness of these techniques in increasing precipitation from warm and mixed-phase convective clouds.
(The following paragraphs, only those that are directly relevant, are quoted PARTLY from Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 9, 24145–24192, 2009
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/24145/2009/
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License,
in which we must strongly refer to as our concrete guidelines and references.)
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/24145/2009/acpd-9-24145-2009.pdf
(For full study - article please copy and paste the above link to your web browser.)
Effect of hygroscopic seeding on warm rain clouds – numerical study using a hybrid cloud microphysical model, Revised: 8 March 2010 – Accepted: 20 March 2010 – Published: 9 April 2010
(1) Seeding can hasten the onset of surface rainfall and increase the accumulated amount of surface rainfall if the amount and radius of seeding particles are appropriate.
(2) The optimal radius of monodisperse particles to increase rainfall becomes larger with the increase in the total mass of seeding particles.
(3) Seeding with salt micro-powder can hasten the onset of surface rainfall and increase the accumulated amount of surface rainfall if the amount of seeding particles is sufficient.
(4) Seeding by a hygroscopic flare decreases rainfall in the case of large updraft velocity (shallow convective cloud) and increases rainfall slightly in the case of small updraft velocity (stratiform cloud).
(5) Seeding with hygroscopic flares including ultragiant particles hastens the onset of surface rainfall but may not significantly increase the accumulated surface rainfall amount.
(6) Hygroscopic seeding increases surface rainfall by two kinds of effects: the “competition effect” by which large soluble particles prevent the activation of smaller particles and the “raindrop embryo effect” in which giant soluble particles can immediately become raindrop embryos. In some cases, one of the effects works, and in other cases, both effects work, depending on the updraft velocity and the amount and size of seeding particles.
********* My recommendations *********
So far the Jordanian Cloud Seeding Team, well consists of honorable required personnel in the essential concerned fields of meteorology, aviation, cloud physics, chemistry, engineering, and management.
As requested by the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan His Majesty King Bhumibol's Royal Rainmaking Technology from the Kingdom of Thailand was granted and the knowhow and expertise has been transferred as well as the training courses which took place well successfully in both the Kingdom of Thailand and in Jordan under signed bilateral MOU.
The base for rainmaking operation and all preparations were established quite completely at Amman Civil Airport and the trial and experimental operation and actual flights were successfully carried out as mentioned in the first paragraph.
In summary the warm cloud seeding rainmaking and rain enhancement methods generally yielded encouraging results. Although in rainy times of winter season in Jordan there are many chances that top of clouds could as well form up as super-cooled clouds, the hygroscopic substances used at warmer sections of clouds still enhance more droplets and surface rainfalls without anything to do with top of clouds.
If the method of using 'silver iodide flares' at top of super-cooled clouds is preferable by the Jordan themselves it could also certainly be set up and applied in order to make the rain clouds yield much more rainfalls.
In this case a suitable types of aircrafts and their performances are also importantly accounted for. The suitable and better aircraft the better result in which the entire operation depends on the overall budget of the project. However, in all aspects and circumstances of the project itself, stay efficient and being cost effective as much as possible is a very crucial matter for the success of rainmaking aimed to add up more water for dams in a long term period.
Using a glaciogenic substance the 'silver iodide flares' only some suitable certain types of aircrafts must also be equipped with specific on board computer as well as external probes in order to be able to make measurement of cloud to be working on aimed for rain enhancement. Certain conditions of cloud must be met before the seeding otherwise the result can be opposite, or a failure or useless.
For warm cloud seeding methods itself, different and lowest operational overhead cost small types of aircraft, if possible and the choices are available, should also be used in all flight operations for manual seeding of hygroscopic substances.
In addition, with the same kind of small aircrafts the technique of using 'hygroscopic flares of burn-in-place type' can also be considered to be well implemented simultaneously adding up more effectiveness to the operations at certain times of weather and cloud conditions.
More automatic rain gauges and the weather radar ground station, if soon to be developed, absolutely with the creative reasons for other benefits as well, could ensure the success of the rainmaking operations through correct analysis and evaluation of all results. Besides, this new weather radar station can also be modified to be equipped with additional computer system the TITAN. The program can help to spot the right cloud with much more information and details especially, the super-cooled clouds.
http://www.acmg.asso.fr/pdf/new_concept...flares.pdf
(For full study – article concerned TITAN please click the above link.)
The methods for warmer clouds manual seeding with exothermic and endothermic hygroscopic substances, if preferred, can also continue to be used. The manual seeding of aerial dispensing of endothermic hygroscopic substances and - or , for example, cryogenic substance of dry-ice in chipped flakes would certainly help to make the seeded clouds yield rain closer to wanted targets. The same aircrafts can also be used to spray hygroscopic endothermic micro-particles of for example, dry powdered sea salt to attract more humidity, seeding clouds, as well as promoting the development and intensity of convective rain clouds squeezing and harvesting more water from the atmosphere in such a way of nature tracing in this territory as when stormy wind of sand and dust make their presence and act as good natural cloud condensation nuclei.
It is delighted that the present honorable Jordanian personnel who are open minded, competent, and proficient in the fields are fully ready to carry on and carry out the rainmaking and rain enhancement operations by means of the Royal Rainmaking
Technology from Thailand for their country.
( In conclusion the entire operation should certainly be done in a long term basis and perhaps along with more of all infrastructures for national water management. )
[ *** Thanks much to all honorable Jordanians and all concerned people for their
great works and all efforts, to the projects for all, they've done and are doing. *** ]
Water is more than precious, it is everything, it is life. Save the water, manage it well.
May peace, prosperity, and happiness be with the people of all regions.
Captain Chi-ti-tewan Devakul
Senior Expert in aviation and weather modification, instructor
http://rainmakings.blogspot.com
mlcdevakul@gmail.com
***********************************************************************************
" The Story of the wonderful seeding funnel on C-295 of the
Royal Jordanian Air Force. "
****** ( Conceptual design by Captain Chi-ti-tewan Devakul, Royal Rainmaking,
Expert: Weather Modification and Aviation ) ******
( Shown in the picture the weather modification substances dispensing funnel at its final operational stage which has already been modified and improved superbly and is finally being used in the rainmaking operation since November 2016 and presently. )
(Full names and email addresses have been partly edited - omitted for privacy. Thank you,)
From: "Chititewan Devakul" <mlcdevakul@gmail.com>
Date: 28 Mar 2016 15:53
Subject: Experimental operations, rain Jordan
To: <daf.........@yahoo.co.uk>, <itsm........@yahoo.com>, <bak.......@hotmail.com>, "<hgh.....@rjaf.mil.jo>, <rae......@yahoo.com>, <sala.......@yahoo.com>, "Ziyad ziya.........@yahoo.com>, <sheya.......@yahoo.com>
Cc: "Hotmail" <wat....@hotmail.com>, <hali.........@hotmail.com>
Dear gentlemen,
Please find attachment my suggestion and recommendation regarding
our first demonstration and experimental operation on aircraft modification, for your consideration.
Thank you all, it has been great.
Best regards,
Chi-ti
Chititewan Devakul
( Attachment is also quoted herein down below for your convenience. )
●●●Following the actual flight operations of demonstration and experimental operations on 26th and 27th Mar. ●●●
The RJAF Casa C-295 dispensing performance of the seeding funnel of the rainmaking substances has been at some satisfactory level at the very beginning stage of the operations.
All honorable personnel from JMD, RJAF, and all concerned staff and people are most admirable, efficient, and effective. Operational bases and all equipments are so far very well arranged, managed, and operated. All persons are gaining experiences learning by doing in all areas and the entire fields and subjects of weather modification and cloud physics.
However, some improvement, in some of the areas, is needed in order to make things even much better.
One of the crucial matters that concerns the discharging performance of the seeding funnel in order to make the flow of dispensing rate to become much faster could be discussed.
Existing funnel installed on the C-295 aircraft may need to be modified to make the whole discharging pipe or duct to be set to extend side way, either port or starboard as convenience.
***( Please see previous communication emails for references.)***
The pipe or duct, in low profile correct aerodynamic shape, must be extended out far enough that its tip is out of wind turbulences and reversed suction of the the aircraft empennage and ramp door and that the substances which flow out of the pipe are carried out and away from the aircraft continuously in the area of smooth streamline air-flow along side of the aircraft.
If the modification can not be made to extend as well as retractable side way as stated above then the funnel pipe or duct may have to be installed through the aft door on either side which may have to be cut through. Therefore, the discharging pipe or duct is extended out into the smooth streamline air-flow along side of the aircraft and without effect of the wind turbulences from main landing gears bay.
Also one of the best way is to design the funnel to be cut through the belly of the aircraft. However, if there is a concern for the pressurization system then in this case type of aircraft may have to be reconsidered and / or changed for smaller aircraft without pressurization system. In this way it is recommended that the same present flight crew of captain and pilots who have been trained should still be used and / or help in training new flight crew for the jobs.
**************************************************
Quoted herein some of previous emails regarding aircraft modification following first training of selected Jordanian personnel in Thailand in August - September 2014.
October 2014 :
Dear Col. Was.. ,
Greetings from Thailand - Royal Rainmaking.
It's been quite a long while since our last emails. I'm writing to re-establish contact, updating, with you once again. How are you? and how's your plan with your C-130, confirmed by your intention to be used in possible future rainmaking operations in Jordan, to be equipped with your design of dispensing-funnel for the warm cloud seeding.
One significant remark I would like to point out is that the dispensing-funnel should be best designed that it is well extended from your ramp door or else where as per your design but should be out side way, no matter port or starboard or both sides, so that the dispensing rainmaking substances are aerodynamically flow out and spread to the atmosphere escaping and away from turbulence areas of aft - tail fuselage and empennage. Deposit of corrosive rainmaking substances at empennage should be avoidable as much as possible. Even though, the aircraft should be thoroughly washed every time right after seeding operations at the end of the day.
Attachments are pictures of our CN-235's dispensing-pipes-funnels in comparison with the tail section of the C-130 that I'm talking about. (We're not using, or have ever used, our C-130 in any rainmaking operation, of course only transportation.) The interior of any aircraft doing the seeding must also well be covered with canvases as shown in the picture of our CN-235. It's quite a job for all the preparation on aircraft modification.
In our CN-235 the seeding dispensing-funnel also actually differently goes through the 'cut through' connecting passage at the aft of its belly.
If the rainmaking in Jordan would ever really happen,
the C-130 of yours would also need to fly low above terrain of perhaps 4,000 feet above ground under cloud bases and CB(s). Slowest speed and quick-sharp turns should be flown to stay in closest proximity and/or inside rain clouds according to circumstances. I've forwarded you via previous email here before, last year, of all the steps of how to fly the royal rainmaking technology all in English that I've written for your reference text from us.
Look forward to your acknowledged reply. Thank you.
Best regards,
Capt. Chititewan Devakul
The Thai Royal Rainmaking's rainmaking substances seeding dispensing funnel as mentioned in the above email on the Thai's CN-235 which has been in operation
for many years and present days.
The very first original design, a real prototype for all later designs until these present days of rainmaking substances side-door seeding dispensing funnel, since 1970 by
the late M.R.Debriddhi Devakul, His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej's
Royal Inventor, expert scientist - researcher, Royal Rainmaking-flyer, and the king's
closest aid and Founder of the Department of Royal Rainmaking under HMK's
royal initiation and direct command.
" Superb - awesome engineering invention, design, and built of all indeed "
" The Original "
by M.R. Debriddhi ( Teparit ) Devakul
One of his very first texts - journals in early times regarding
study, research, and development of the Royal Rainmaking operations
which has greatly laid foundation and
paved way for today's all weather modification operations.
*********************************************************************
All finished at its best !
*********************************************************************
*********************************************************************
For further more see also http://rainmaking-malaysia.blogspot.com
*********************************************************************
By the way :
Are these different inventions working all okay ?!
https://climateviewer.com/2014/03/26/cloud-ionization-electric-rainmaking-laser-guided-weather-modification/
Only if so ...........
then they can even more greatly improve quality of life
especially for those who desperately in need of water.
All the best,
*******************************************
A special section, a supplemental section quoted :
On most crucial matter on any weather modification operation
●●●●●● Analysis and evaluation ●●●●●●
Dear Chiti,
Hope you fine, we purchased all required rainmaking chemicals (nacl, cacl2, urea and dry ice), the aircraft is ready and the equipment to be used for spreading chemicals is ready as well. we purchased 6 remotely automatic rain gauges to be installed soon in the catchment area, we have a meeting next week with Mr. Haleem from Thailand Embassy, Amman to discuss the arrangements.
best regard
dafi
From: Chititewan Devakul <mlcdevakul@gmail.com>
To: dafi........@yahoo.co.uk>
Cc: baker.....@hotmail.com; hghwa...@rjaf.mil.jo>
Sent: Thursday, 4 February 2016, 11:04:54
Subject: Fwd: Re: Rainmaking in Jordan
Show quoted text
Dear Dafi,
Thank you very much for your email updating the matters.
I'm really delighted to hear of what you've done there.
I'll get back to you again, in the mean time
wishing everyone best of all the best.
Best regards,
Chiti
Show quoted text
Dear Dafi,
Getting in touch with you once again. As per your recent lastest resourceful email to me which also indicated that six remote automatic rain gauges have been acquired.
Thank you,
Now, always nice to be ahead of time, this is just my suggestion, proposing, for :
● Analysis and Evaluation, of future weather modification operations aimed for rain-making and rain enhancement;
The suggestions are:
● For your "target catchment area", the area in affected of our aerial dispensing of rainmaking particles and substances, which would be called a "designated seeded area" of certain area of the water-shed and reservoir itself, it could be installed with some numbers of ( Let's say three or four since there are six in total. ) automatic rain gauges.
● Now for the area outside "target catchment area", the one nearby, adjacent, and/or around it, however with buffer zone, which certainly best considered to have the same climatology and geography and is completely NOT in affected of our aerial dispensing of rainmaking particles and substances, which would be called a "designated non seeded area", it could be installed with some numbers of automatic rain gauges. (Let's say two or three since there are six in total.)
This is in order to make a "comparison" between the two designated areas for the actual total surface rainfalls results of planned, assigned, and all actual weather modification flights flown and done with natural weather condition and natural rain. (The longer period of times of comparisons of weather modification operations, the higher precision of its analysis and evaluation is.)
*** Rain gauges should not be installed only in target catchment area and is seperated into seeded and non seeded designated areas in order to get rid of bias to claim the result over natural rain as it is likely and also only favorable days of weather conditions that weather modification operations are carried out and flights are flown for intended target catchment area.***
The "comparisons" of all "overall resultes" in both designated areas should also be compared in a long term with any available rainfalls records in larger areas from the past as far back as possible. Let's say a comparison of (days), monthly, and yearly in some, perhaps, twenty years back.
● Another important way of analysis and evaluation to confirm the results is to check and keep weather radar images tracking and records of those times some hours well before and after weather modification flights flown in both designated areas and again in comparison. (Weather radar estimated total surface rainfalls could be done by comparing the observed intensity of rain clouds radar echo and actual observed surface rainfalls by all means.)
● This should also include "physical observations" by airborne personnel in weather modification flights as well as personnel on ground bases at two designated areas to further confirm the results by actual sights of rainfalls, to be done in written and notes. The physical observation may initially include streams and rivers "run off", changing of water colour, and an increment of distintive water level in reservoir in final.
● (Please note that these two designated seeded and non seeded areas could always be swapped, in opposite, or all around in different ways, depending on weather condition, intended and different target catchment, planned and actual weather modification operations and/or intentions of analysis and evaluation.)
** A special computerised platform and web of data base and recording systems, of all rainmaking operations and its details and resulted in all of the techniques mentioned above, can always be set up if the weather modification operations are to be done in a long period of time - years. Otherwise it could be done in written and notes by normal programs. **
● (Please also note that the effectiveness of analysis and evaluation could only be much more precise when it is done in longer times, for example, years of weather modification operations in comparison with non seeded years. Other affects which could made analysis and evaluation less precise are also because of natural diversity of weather conditions of different years with more or less rain naturally especially, in some highly shifting and changing of today's world weather patterns, significant change of agricultural practices, changing environments and nature, and etc. )
Written: Chititewan Devakul
On 4 Feb 2016 16:27, <dafi........@yahoo.co.uk> wrote:
Show quoted text
By the way Dafi :
In the case that weather modification operations would be carried on and carried out for a long period of time then please also include this item in your analysis and evaluation :
● When the comparisons of rain results are done which includes designated seeded and non seeded areas or more areas for a long span of weather modification operations in a long period of times of several months, year, or years then a randomisation technique could be applied to randomly pick just some numbers of flight operations out of total operations to be used for comparisons in order to avoid bias and to make the analysis and evaluation even more accurate. ●
● We must be open minded and first accept that, this is because the weather modification flight operations are done only on good days which have good elements for rain such as - any of, humidity, heat, instability, natural soaring, convergence of winds of different barometric pressure and temperature air masses, amount of natural suspended micro-particles, existing clouds and rain clouds, and etc. in the atmosphere . ●
Sorry for inconvenience.
Thank you,
Chiti
Thank you brothers,
